This course provides essential training in the core functions of **treasury management** within the public sector, with a specific focus on **cash flow forecasting**. Effective treasury management is crucial for ensuring government liquidity, minimizing borrowing costs, and optimizing the return on public funds. Participants will learn how to centralize and consolidate government cash balances, develop accurate short-term and medium-term cash forecasts, and implement strategies for managing foreign exchange and interest rate risks. The course is designed to equip officials with the practical tools needed to manage the government's financial assets efficiently and professionally.
Treasury Management and Cash Flow Forecasting
Tax and Revenue Management
October 25, 2025
Introduction
Objectives
Upon completion of this course, participants will be be able to:
- Understand the core objectives and functions of a modern government Treasury Single Account (TSA).
- Develop accurate short-term (daily/weekly) and medium-term (monthly/quarterly) cash flow forecasts.
- Manage the collection, concentration, and disbursement of government funds efficiently.
- Identify and implement effective strategies for managing public sector financial risks (liquidity, interest rate, FX).
- Apply best practice techniques for the investment of temporary cash surpluses.
- Design and monitor key performance indicators (KPIs) for treasury operations.
- Manage the coordination of cash management with debt management and budget execution.
- Evaluate the benefits and challenges of migrating to an electronic payment system for government transactions.
Target Audience
- Treasury Managers and Staff
- Cash Flow Forecasting Specialists
- Ministry of Finance and Treasury Officials
- Debt Management Office Personnel
- Budget and Revenue Forecasting Analysts
- Central Bank Officials involved in Government Banking
- Internal Auditors and Financial Controllers
Methodology
- Case studies of TSA implementation and cash centralization in different countries.
- Hands-on exercise: developing a 30-day cash flow forecast using real-world data templates.
- Group activity: formulating an investment policy for short-term government cash surpluses.
- Scenario analysis of managing a sudden, unexpected revenue shortfall.
- Discussions on the optimal institutional placement of the treasury function (Ministry vs. Central Bank).
Personal Impact
- Mastery of best practice principles in public sector treasury management.
- Expertise in developing and validating accurate cash flow forecasts.
- Ability to implement effective risk management and control frameworks.
- Enhanced professional standing as a financial risk manager.
- Skills in utilizing modern treasury technology and payment systems.
Organizational Impact
- Significant reduction in government borrowing costs and bank fees.
- Improved liquidity management, preventing unexpected payment delays.
- Optimization of returns on temporary cash surpluses.
- Increased fiscal discipline and transparency through cash centralization (TSA).
- Strengthened internal controls and reduction in fraud risk for cash transactions.
Course Outline
Unit 1: Foundations of Public Sector Treasury
Objectives and Functions- Defining the scope and role of modern public treasury management
- The core objectives: liquidity, safety, yield, and minimizing costs
- Institutional and legal frameworks for government treasury operations
- Coordinating treasury with budgeting, accounting, and debt management
- Principles and benefits of a centralized cash management structure
- Operational models and implementation challenges of a TSA
- Managing subsidiary accounts and ensuring daily cash sweeps
Unit 2: Cash Flow Forecasting and Planning
Short-Term Forecasting Methodologies- Techniques for daily and weekly cash flow forecasting (e.g., time series, deterministic)
- Forecasting major inflows (tax revenue, grants) and outflows (payroll, debt service)
- Reconciliation and performance measurement of short-term forecasts
- Developing monthly and quarterly forecasts for investment and borrowing decisions
- Integrating tax revenue and expenditure forecasts into the cash plan
- The use of forecasting in managing unexpected liquidity events
Unit 3: Liquidity and Risk Management
Managing Liquidity Risk- Determining optimal target cash balances and buffer levels
- Setting up short-term borrowing facilities (e.g., overdrafts, T-Bills)
- Monitoring and managing bank counterparty risk
- Developing an investment policy for temporary government surpluses
- Criteria for eligible investment instruments (safety, liquidity, return)
- Managing interest rate risk on the investment portfolio
Unit 4: Payments and Technology
Modernizing Payment Systems- Migrating from check and cash payments to electronic funds transfer (EFT)
- Benefits of real-time gross settlement (RTGS) for government transactions
- Ensuring security and internal controls in digital payment systems
- The role of Treasury Management Systems (TMS) in automation and reporting
- Integrating TMS with the government accounting and budget systems
Unit 5: Performance and Internal Control
Performance Measurement- Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) for cash management effectiveness
- Measuring cost of borrowing and return on investments
- Regular reporting on cash position and risk exposure
- Separation of duties and segregation of functions in treasury operations
- Internal audit procedures for cash and investment management
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