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Strategic Foresight and Scenario Planning

Strategy and Strategic Planning October 25, 2025
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Introduction

In an age defined by continuous disruption, relying on single-point forecasts is strategically dangerous. This immersive course provides leaders with the methodology to systematically scan the horizon, identify weak signals, and construct plausible future scenarios to test and stress-test current strategy. Participants will learn how to move beyond prediction to preparation, developing robust and flexible strategies that succeed across a range of potential futures. The focus is on building an institutional capability for strategic foresight, enabling the organization to anticipate major shifts, uncover hidden opportunities, and proactively shape its own destiny.

Objectives

To equip leaders and strategists with the practical tools and structured methodologies to identify emerging threats, build alternative future scenarios, and design strategies that are robust to uncertainty:

Target Audience

  • Corporate Strategists and Strategic Planning Leads.
  • Innovation and R&D Executives.
  • Risk Management and Business Continuity Professionals.
  • C-Suite Executives responsible for long-term vision.
  • Business Intelligence and Market Research Analysts.
  • Consultants specializing in future-proofing business models.

Methodology

  • Intensive workshop on developing scenarios for a hypothetical organization.
  • Group exercise on environmental scanning and identifying weak signals.
  • Case studies of companies that successfully anticipated major shifts (and those that failed).
  • Structured debate on testing and adjusting a current strategy using scenarios.
  • Templates for horizon scanning and scenario documentation.

Personal Impact

  • Master the structured, systematic methodology of scenario planning.
  • Enhanced ability to identify weak signals and drivers of change.
  • Develop the capacity for complex, long-term strategic thinking.
  • Improved skill in stress-testing strategic assumptions and identifying blind spots.
  • Increased personal resilience in leading under conditions of deep uncertainty.

Organizational Impact

  • Strategic plans that are significantly more robust and resilient to external shocks.
  • Identification of new, profitable market opportunities ahead of competitors.
  • Improved capital allocation by supporting flexible, staged investments.
  • A culture of continuous strategic learning and proactive anticipation.
  • Reduced risk from unforeseen geopolitical, technological, or market shifts.

Course Outline

Unit 1: Foundations of Strategic Foresight

Scanning the Environment for Weak Signals
  • Differentiating between trends, uncertainties, and wildcards (shocks).
  • Techniques for systematic environmental scanning and horizon plotting.
  • Methods for identifying "weak signals" that hint at future disruption.
  • Categorizing driving forces: Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, Political (STEEP).
The Strategic Purpose of Foresight
  • Moving from prediction to anticipating possibilities and managing preparedness.
  • Foresight as a tool for strategic alignment and organizational learning.
  • Identifying the key strategic questions that scenario planning must address.

Unit 2: The Scenario Planning Process

Constructing Plausible Scenarios
  • Identifying the two critical, highly uncertain, and independent driving forces.
  • Defining the axes of the scenario matrix and developing the four quadrants.
  • Developing rich, narrative descriptions for each future scenario.
  • Ensuring the scenarios are plausible, relevant, and challenging to current thinking.
Implications and Options
  • Analyzing the potential impact of each scenario on the organization's current strategy.
  • Identifying key leading indicators (signposts) to watch for.
  • Brainstorming strategic options and responses for each scenario.

Unit 3: Designing Robust Strategies

Testing Strategy Robustness
  • Using scenarios to stress-test the assumptions underlying the core strategy.
  • Defining "Robust Strategies" that perform adequately across all scenarios.
  • Identifying "Hedge Strategies" for worst-case, low-probability, high-impact scenarios.
  • Developing "No Regret Moves" that are beneficial regardless of the future.
Building Strategic Flexibility
  • Designing adaptive strategies that can be quickly adjusted as the future unfolds.
  • The concept of "Strategic Options" and valuing flexibility.
  • Resource allocation techniques that support staged, flexible investment.

Unit 4: Embedding Foresight in the Organization

Institutionalizing the Process
  • Structuring a permanent foresight capability (Foresight Team/Council).
  • Integrating foresight insights into the annual strategic planning cycle.
  • Communicating scenario insights effectively to the Board and executive team.
  • Overcoming cultural resistance to thinking beyond the known future.
Linking Foresight to Innovation
  • Using scenarios to identify future customer needs and white space opportunities.
  • Fueling the innovation pipeline with strategic foresight insights.
  • Developing R&D roadmaps based on potential future technology trajectories.

Unit 5: Advanced Futures Methods

The Cone of Plausibility
  • Understanding the relationship between potential, plausible, probable, and preferable futures.
  • Introduction to Delphi and Cross-Impact Analysis for expert consensus.
  • Ethical and social dimensions of long-term foresight.

Ready to Learn More?

Have questions about this course? Get in touch with our training consultants.

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Upcoming Sessions

02 Feb

New York

February 02, 2026 - February 04, 2026

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23 Feb

Sharm El-Sheikh

February 23, 2026 - March 06, 2026

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23 Mar

Leeds

March 23, 2026 - March 27, 2026

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