Upon completion of this course, participants will be able to:

• Analyze the primary drivers and manifestations of global geopolitical fragmentation in the current era.
• Assess the implications of trade wars, sanctions, and alliance shifts on the stability and future role of major reserve currencies.
• Evaluate various analytical frameworks for quantifying and integrating geopolitical risk into the strategic asset allocation process.
• Formulate and implement robust strategies for currency diversification to enhance portfolio resilience against geopolitical shocks.
• Examine the potential of non-traditional currencies (e.g., Chinese Yuan, regional currency blocs) as viable reserve assets.
• Interpret historical precedents of currency shifts driven by geopolitical change to inform current decision-making.
• Develop stress-testing scenarios to evaluate the impact of tail-risk geopolitical events on reserve portfolios.
• Understand the regulatory and legal challenges associated with diversifying into currencies from politically complex jurisdictions.

• Senior Reserve Managers and Deputy Governors of Central Banks.
• Chief Investment Officers of Sovereign Wealth Funds.
• Portfolio Strategists and Analysts in International Financial Institutions.
• Heads of Risk Management and Treasury Departments.
• Economists and Researchers focusing on International Finance and Geopolitics.
• Government officials involved in foreign policy and economic security.

• Scenario Planning and Simulation Exercises
• Interactive Group Discussions on Policy Responses
• Case Studies on Sanctions and Capital Control Events
• Expert Panel Debates on the Future of Reserve Currencies
• Individual Portfolio Stress Testing Assignments
• Peer-to-Peer Learning and Strategy Sharing Sessions

Unit 1: The New Geopolitical Landscape

• Conceptualizing economic and financial deglobalization.
• The rise of multipolarity and its impact on international finance.
• Analyzing trade tensions, supply chain fragmentation, and economic decoupling.
• The weaponization of finance: sanctions, frozen assets, and regulatory barriers.
• Mapping geopolitical hotspots and their potential financial contagion effects.
• Case studies of historical shifts in global economic power centers.

Unit 2: Stressors on Reserve Currencies

• Drivers of US Dollar dominance and its structural vulnerabilities.
• The Eurozone’s challenges: political integration and fiscal stability concerns.
• The role of the Japanese Yen and British Pound in a fragmented world.
• Quantitative analysis of long-term reserve currency trends and forecasts.
• Impact of fiscal policy and debt levels on currency credibility.

Unit 3: Frameworks for Geopolitical Risk Integration

• Developing qualitative and quantitative metrics for geopolitical risk.
• Integrating non-market risks into Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT).
• Scenario analysis and stress-testing methodologies for geopolitical events.
• Using text mining and alternative data sources for early warning indicators.
• Constructing geopolitical risk indices for ongoing monitoring.

Unit 4: Strategic Currency Diversification

• Optimizing currency weights based on liquidity, safety, and return characteristics.
• Evaluating the potential of the Chinese Yuan (RMB) and its capital account controls.
• Exploring gold and other commodities as diversification tools against fiat currency risk.
• The role of regional currencies and special drawing rights (SDR) in diversification.
• Implementing tactical adjustments based on short-term geopolitical volatility.

Unit 5: Legal, Regulatory, and Operational Implications

• Navigating sanctions regimes and compliance requirements for diversified portfolios.
• Custody and settlement risks in less liquid and emerging market currencies.
• The legal framework for central bank digital currency (CBDC) cross-border use.
• Operational resilience for managing a broader basket of international assets.