Upon completion of this course, participants will be able to:

• Differentiate between political risk, country risk, and the broader concept of geopolitical risk.
• Apply systematic frameworks for analyzing political stability, conflict, and policy uncertainty in key regions.
• Utilize advanced intelligence gathering and monitoring techniques for tracking geopolitical developments.
• Conduct deep-dive **Geopolitical Scenario Analysis** to model the impact of global events on the business.
• Develop proactive strategies for mitigating risks related to trade wars, sanctions, expropriation, and contract frustration.
• Integrate geopolitical findings into strategic planning, capital investment, and supply chain decisions.
• Advise senior leadership on political security risks for employee travel and expatriate assignments.
• Develop clear, actionable geopolitical risk reports for executive and board consumption.

• Senior Executives and Strategy Officers
• Enterprise Risk Managers and Business Continuity Planners
• Supply Chain and Procurement Leaders
• Investment and Market Analysts in global firms
• Heads of International Operations and Security

• Group Geopolitical Scenario Analysis and War Gaming Exercises
• Case Studies on the Business Impact of Trade Wars and Sanctions
• Individual Risk Assessment of a High-Risk Country of Operation
• Role-Playing Executive Briefings on Imminent Political Instability
• Discussions on Ethics, Human Rights, and Corporate Involvement in Geopolitically Complex Regions

Unit 1: Defining the Geopolitical Landscape

• Defining geopolitical risk (state-to-state relations, conflict, policy shifts) vs. country risk.
• Categories of geopolitical risk: trade, sanctions, political instability, resource nationalism, technology.
• Understanding the concept of the **"Black Swan"** in a geopolitical context.
• Analyzing the drivers of global uncertainty: nationalism, populism, great power competition.
• The cascading and interconnected nature of global geopolitical events.

Unit 2: Analytical Frameworks and Tools

• Utilizing frameworks for political stability analysis (e.g., PESTLE analysis).
• Methodologies for assessing **Conflict Risk** and its impact on regional operations.
• Techniques for gathering and verifying geopolitical intelligence from open and closed sources.
• Developing a tailored **Geopolitical Risk Index** for tracking high-priority countries.
• Differentiating between acute (sudden) and chronic (long-term) geopolitical risks.

Unit 3: Geopolitical Scenario Planning

• Designing severe but plausible geopolitical scenarios (e.g., major trade war, regional conflict).
• Mapping the direct and indirect business impacts of scenarios on revenue, supply chain, and assets.
• Using quantitative methods to estimate potential financial losses under political stress.
• Applying **War Gaming** techniques to test leadership response to political crises.
• Conducting political security assessments for key international facilities and personnel.

Unit 4: Mitigation and Strategic Response

• Strategic risk treatment: diversification, political risk insurance, and local partnerships.
• Developing country-specific **Exit Strategies** and contingency plans for operations.
• Mitigating risk related to economic sanctions, export controls, and tariffs.
• Managing contract frustration and sovereign risk in government dealings.
• The role of public affairs and lobbying in mitigating adverse policy changes.

Unit 5: Integration and Reporting

• Integrating geopolitical risk findings into the annual strategy and budgeting process.
• Establishing a mechanism for continuous geopolitical intelligence monitoring and alert.
• Translating complex political analysis into clear, strategic implications for the Board.
• Best practices for communicating geopolitical risk and uncertainty to investors and employees.
• Post-event analysis: learning from geopolitical surprises and improving forecasts.