Upon completion of this course, participants will be able to:

• Map and analyze the full **national cash cycle**, identifying key efficiency drivers and bottlenecks (issuance, circulation, processing, destruction).
• Apply advanced **statistical and econometric models** to forecast currency demand by denomination and region, incorporating seasonality and trend.
• Evaluate the potential of **AI and Machine Learning** (e.g., time-series models, deep learning) to improve the accuracy and speed of cash forecasting.
• Design a comprehensive **currency ordering and issuance strategy** that balances cost-effectiveness with security and supply reliability.
• Utilize **Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)** to monitor and optimize cash center operational efficiency and circulation speed.
• Understand the impact of macroeconomic variables (e.g., GDP, interest rates) and payment trends (e.g., digitalization) on cash demand.
• Develop a robust framework for post-forecasting error analysis and continuous model refinement.
• Formulate a strategic plan for managing currency obsolescence and the introduction of new currency series.

• Cash Management Strategists and Policy Makers at Central Banks.
• Forecasting and Quantitative Analysts in Cash Operations.
• Economists and Researchers focused on Cash Demand and Payment Systems.
• Heads of Cash Center Operations and Distribution.
• Currency Production and Issuance Planners.
• Risk Management Specialists focused on Cash Supply Chain Risk.

• Cash Demand Forecasting Workshops using Statistical and ML Software (e.g., Python/R)
• Group Activities on Modeling the Impact of Macroeconomic Shocks on Currency Demand
• Case Studies on Currency Obsolescence Planning and New Series Introduction
• Expert Lectures on Cash Cycle Cost-Benefit Analysis and KPIs
• Discussions on the Strategic Implications of Digitalization for Cash Policy
• Individual Exercises on Calculating Optimal Currency Order Quantities

Unit 1: Analyzing the National Cash Cycle

• Mapping the end-to-end cash cycle: central bank, commercial banks, CIT, retailers, and public.
• Identifying key operational bottlenecks and cost drivers within the cycle.
• Analyzing the impact of automated teller machines (ATMs) and cash recycling systems (CRSs) on circulation speed.
• Establishing key performance indicators (KPIs) for circulation efficiency and fitness.
• Measuring and modeling the average **life cycle of a banknote** by denomination.

Unit 2: Traditional and Advanced Forecasting Models

• Review of traditional forecasting methods: historical averages, moving averages, and simple regression.
• Application of **ARIMA and SARIMA models** to capture seasonality and cyclical demand patterns.
• Integrating macroeconomic and financial variables (e.g., inflation, holidays, wages) into econometric models.
• Techniques for modeling **unpredictable demand shocks** (e.g., bank runs, natural disasters).
• Post-forecasting error analysis, backtesting, and model stability assessment.

Unit 3: AI and Machine Learning in Cash Forecasting

• Utilizing **Machine Learning (ML)** for non-linear time-series forecasting (e.g., Random Forests, Gradient Boosting).
• Applying **Deep Learning (DL)** models (e.g., LSTMs) to incorporate high-frequency and diverse data sources.
• Feature engineering for cash demand models (e.g., incorporating social media sentiment, payment system activity).
• Challenges of data quality, model interpretability, and model risk governance in AI forecasting.
• Comparative analysis of AI/ML performance versus traditional forecasting methods.

Unit 4: Issuance Strategy and Inventory Management

• Determining the optimal **currency order quantity** and frequency for new notes and coin.
• Balancing the cost of new issuance versus the cost of premature destruction of fit notes.
• Managing the transition and inventory of new vs. legacy currency series.
• Developing dynamic strategies for optimizing the mix of denominations in central bank vaults.
• The role of the cash cycle analysis in informing **monetary policy operations** and reserve requirements.

Unit 5: Impact of Digitalization and Future Trends

• Analyzing the long-term impact of electronic payments and **Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC)** on cash demand.
• Strategies for maintaining the public's access to cash in an increasingly digital economy.
• The role of automated cash recycling in decentralizing inventory management.
• Policy implications for maintaining the quality and fitness of a potentially declining volume of cash.
• Managing public perception and communication regarding currency integrity and circulation.